And then I thought to myself, “This LK99 issue seems complicated enough that it’d be worth doing an actual Bayesian calculation on it”—a rare thought; I don’t think I’ve done an actual explicit numerical Bayesian update in at least a year.
In the process of trying to set up an explicit calculation, I realized I felt very unsure about some critically important quantities, to the point where it no longer seemed worth trying to do the calculation with numbers. This is the System Working As Intended.
Pretty sure it’s just false.
First found example: the last post by EY
That’s a story where he thinks he should do a Bayesian analysis, then doesn’t. It’s not a story where no one should do one.