I also don’t think there’s a discrete point at which you can say, “I’ve won the race.” I think it’s just like capabilities keep improving and you can have more capabilities than the other guy, but at no point can you say, “Now I have won the race.”
I think that (a) this isn’t a disanalogy to nuclear arms races and (b) it’s a sign of danger, since at no point do people feel free to slow down and test safety.
RS I’m confused by (a). Surely you “win” the nuclear arms race once you successfully make a nuke that can be dropped on another country?
(b) seems right, idr if I was arguing for safety or just arguing for disanalogies and wanting more research
DF re (a), if you have nukes that can be dropped on me, I can then make enough nukes to destroy all your nukes. So you make more nukes, so I make more nukes (because I’m worried about my nukes being destroyed) etc. This is historically how it played out, see mid-20th C discussion of the ‘missile gap’.
re (b) fair enough
(it doesn’t actually necessarily play out as clearly as I describe: maybe you get nuclear submarines, I get nuclear submarine detection skills...)
RS (a) Yes, after the first nukes are created, the remainder of the arms race is relatively similar. I was thinking of the race to create the first nuke. (Arguably the US should have used their advantage to prevent all further nukes.)
DF I guess it just seems more natural to me to think of one big long arms race, rather than a bunch of successive races—like, I think if you look at the actual history of nuclear armament, at no point before major powers have tons of nukes are they in a lull, not worrying about making more. But this might be an artefact of me mostly knowing about the US side, which I think was unusual in its nuke production and worrying.
RS Seems reasonable, I think which frame you take will depend on what you’re trying to argue, I don’t remember what I was trying to argue with that. My impression was that when people talk about the “nuclear arms race”, they were talking about the one leading to the creation of the bomb, but I’m not confident in that (and can’t think of any evidence for it right now)
DF
My impression was that when people talk about the “nuclear arms race”, they were talking about the one leading to the creation of the bomb
FWIW I think I’ve only ever heard “nuclear arms race” used to refer to the buildup of more and more weapons, more advancements, etc., not a race to create the first nuclear weapon. And the Wikipedia article by that name opens with:
This page uses the phrase ‘A “Race” for the bomb’ (rather than “nuclear arms race”) to describe the US and Nazi Germany’s respective efforts to create the first nuclear weapon. My impression is that this “race” was a key motivation in beginning the Manhattan Project and in the early stages, but I’m not sure to what extent that “race” remained “live” and remained a key motivation for the US (as opposed the US just clearly being ahead, and now being motivated by having invested a lot and wanting a powerful weapon to win the war sooner). That page says “By 1944, however, the evidence was clear: the Germans had not come close to developing a bomb and had only advanced to preliminary research.”
DF
I think that (a) this isn’t a disanalogy to nuclear arms races and (b) it’s a sign of danger, since at no point do people feel free to slow down and test safety.
RS I’m confused by (a). Surely you “win” the nuclear arms race once you successfully make a nuke that can be dropped on another country?
(b) seems right, idr if I was arguing for safety or just arguing for disanalogies and wanting more research
DF re (a), if you have nukes that can be dropped on me, I can then make enough nukes to destroy all your nukes. So you make more nukes, so I make more nukes (because I’m worried about my nukes being destroyed) etc. This is historically how it played out, see mid-20th C discussion of the ‘missile gap’.
re (b) fair enough
(it doesn’t actually necessarily play out as clearly as I describe: maybe you get nuclear submarines, I get nuclear submarine detection skills...)
RS (a) Yes, after the first nukes are created, the remainder of the arms race is relatively similar. I was thinking of the race to create the first nuke. (Arguably the US should have used their advantage to prevent all further nukes.)
DF I guess it just seems more natural to me to think of one big long arms race, rather than a bunch of successive races—like, I think if you look at the actual history of nuclear armament, at no point before major powers have tons of nukes are they in a lull, not worrying about making more. But this might be an artefact of me mostly knowing about the US side, which I think was unusual in its nuke production and worrying.
RS Seems reasonable, I think which frame you take will depend on what you’re trying to argue, I don’t remember what I was trying to argue with that. My impression was that when people talk about the “nuclear arms race”, they were talking about the one leading to the creation of the bomb, but I’m not confident in that (and can’t think of any evidence for it right now)
DF
ah, I did not have that impression. Makes sense.
FWIW I think I’ve only ever heard “nuclear arms race” used to refer to the buildup of more and more weapons, more advancements, etc., not a race to create the first nuclear weapon. And the Wikipedia article by that name opens with:
This page uses the phrase ‘A “Race” for the bomb’ (rather than “nuclear arms race”) to describe the US and Nazi Germany’s respective efforts to create the first nuclear weapon. My impression is that this “race” was a key motivation in beginning the Manhattan Project and in the early stages, but I’m not sure to what extent that “race” remained “live” and remained a key motivation for the US (as opposed the US just clearly being ahead, and now being motivated by having invested a lot and wanting a powerful weapon to win the war sooner). That page says “By 1944, however, the evidence was clear: the Germans had not come close to developing a bomb and had only advanced to preliminary research.”
Yeah I think I was probably wrong about this (including what other people were talking about when they said “nuclear arms race”).