There’s been more recent work suggesting that planets are extremely common. Most recently, evidence for planets in unexpected orbits around red dwarfs have been found. See e.g. here. This is in addition to other work suggesting that even when restricted to sun-like stars, planets are not just common, but planets are frequently in the habitable zone. Source(pdf). It seems at this point that any aspect of the Great Filter that is from planet formation must be declared to be completely negligible. Is this analysis accurate?
Is there a wiki or website that keeps track of things related to the Great Filter?
I guess I’m looking for something that enumerates all the possible major filters, and keeps track of data and arguments pertaining to various aspects of these filters.
I’m not aware of any such thing. It would be nice to have. There was an earlier Boston meetup a few years ago where a few of us tried to brainstorm future filters but we didn’t really get anything that wasn’t already known (I think jimrandomh mentioned that there’s been similar attempts at other meetups and the like). The set of proposed filters in the past though is large. I’ve seen almost every major step in the evolution of life being labeled as a filter, and there’s sometimes reference class tennis issues with them, especially when connected to developments that aren’t as obviously necessary for intelligent life.
I have a notion that the proportion of sociopaths is a filter as the tech level goes up—spam is a problem, though more of a dead-weight loss than a disaster. If we get to the point of home build-a-virus kits, it might be a civilization-stopper. Was this on the list?
I think that was included, the point that as tech goes up many heavily devastating weapons become substantially easier for individuals to make/possess was discussed. We’re also already seeing that now. The amount of damage a single person with a gun could do has gone up over time, and we now have 3D printed guns. So do it yourself viruses looks like part of a general trend.
It seems at this point that any aspect of the Great Filter that is from planet formation must be declared to be completely negligible. Is this analysis accurate?
I am not an astrophysicist, so not an authoritative voice here, but yes, almost every star is likely to contain a bunch of planets, some probably in an inhabitable zone. Even our close neighbors, the three Centauri stars and Vega have planets around them, or at least an asteroid belt hinting at planets. So, at least a couple of terms in the Drake equation are very close to unity.
There’s been more recent work suggesting that planets are extremely common. Most recently, evidence for planets in unexpected orbits around red dwarfs have been found. See e.g. here. This is in addition to other work suggesting that even when restricted to sun-like stars, planets are not just common, but planets are frequently in the habitable zone. Source(pdf). It seems at this point that any aspect of the Great Filter that is from planet formation must be declared to be completely negligible. Is this analysis accurate?
Is there a wiki or website that keeps track of things related to the Great Filter?
I guess I’m looking for something that enumerates all the possible major filters, and keeps track of data and arguments pertaining to various aspects of these filters.
I’m not aware of any such thing. It would be nice to have. There was an earlier Boston meetup a few years ago where a few of us tried to brainstorm future filters but we didn’t really get anything that wasn’t already known (I think jimrandomh mentioned that there’s been similar attempts at other meetups and the like). The set of proposed filters in the past though is large. I’ve seen almost every major step in the evolution of life being labeled as a filter, and there’s sometimes reference class tennis issues with them, especially when connected to developments that aren’t as obviously necessary for intelligent life.
I have a notion that the proportion of sociopaths is a filter as the tech level goes up—spam is a problem, though more of a dead-weight loss than a disaster. If we get to the point of home build-a-virus kits, it might be a civilization-stopper. Was this on the list?
I think that was included, the point that as tech goes up many heavily devastating weapons become substantially easier for individuals to make/possess was discussed. We’re also already seeing that now. The amount of damage a single person with a gun could do has gone up over time, and we now have 3D printed guns. So do it yourself viruses looks like part of a general trend.
I am not an astrophysicist, so not an authoritative voice here, but yes, almost every star is likely to contain a bunch of planets, some probably in an inhabitable zone. Even our close neighbors, the three Centauri stars and Vega have planets around them, or at least an asteroid belt hinting at planets. So, at least a couple of terms in the Drake equation are very close to unity.
I second this question. Are we now completely certain of this rarity?