It does it well enough to provoke a “huh, this is pretty interesting and thoughtful” response, but well enough that we won’t be embarrassed by it in fifty years? I’d give very steep odds on that.
Creating a sci fi setting well enough that the audience can suspend disbelief is very different from creating one that’s accurately predictive.
No it dosn’t. I haven’t seen it but I know nothing like that exists.
I’d wager it’s the second solution.
Being able to suspend disbelief is not correlated, it just means it’s a good story. (with a few exceptions, and possible interpersonal variance) disbelief can be suspended just as well to fantasy as to reports of real world events if they are written well enough.
Again, none of this is an attack on the works artistic merit, or their entertainment value, or even their usefulness for learning about science or rationality. But if you think scifi that can lay similar claims to being prophetic that it did a few decades ago is possible today you’re wrong.
Ok, that’s a horrible simplification. I suck at trying to explain things. Basically want I’m saying is that when the standards of hard scifi were developed you could predict indefinitely into the future and still stay within the bounds, but with what we know now, ESPECIALLY someone on LW, that claim cant be honestly made more than a decade or so into the future except in highly contrived circumstances. All the really good transhumanist fiction (that comes to mind at the moment) break some of the implicit rules (if I had actually watched GitS I would probably have listed the way it does so here), or even plain admits to following narrative laws.
You will probably not notice it in most cases, at least not consciously. Most of it is subtly implicit.
I don’t think scifi could ever “lay claims on being prophetic”. It was always more about exploring interesting ideas and look at the stories you could tell than trying to predict anything, AFAIK.
That it’s that way nowadays is what my entire point is. But there is also the notion of the ideal of scifi Hardness. I’m not sure it actually ever existed, but I’m given the impression that at the time they were published things like Asimovs robot series, 1984, (or way back before the ideal even existed: the works of Jules Verne) were considered to be literally possible and unlikely only by virtue of conjunction not any fundamental limitation on what the author could imagine.
Maybe you’ve read less old scifi and thus been less exposed to this ideal?
I haven’t read Verne, but I’ve read 1984, as well as a bunch of works by Asimov and Clarke. I’m not sure if the ideal you’re describing existed or not, but it doesn’t seem to be part of the way the term “hard science fiction” is used today. Today, it justmeans science fiction that’s scientifically rigorous in the sense of being consistent with all currently known science.
Now I’m confused. “scientifically rigorous in the sense of being consistent with all currently known science.” seems equivalent of “considered to be literally possible and unlikely only by virtue of conjunction not any fundamental limitation on what the author could imagine”, both impossible.
And yea I read the links, their definitions are not exactly the same but close enough, but they seem to qualify specific works and authors much higher than I.
I thought that by “considered to be literally possible and unlikely only by virtue of conjunction not any fundamental limitation on what the author could imagine”, you meant two things:
First, the definition of hard sci-fi as given in those links, i.e. nothing in the story must contradict currently known science.
Second, that the consequences of those technologies must be humanly imaginable and in principle predictable by the author. In other words, after-the-Singularity stories cannot be considered hard sci-fi, because it’s fundamentally impossible for us to imagine the consequences of a greater-than-human intelligence.
I was saying that the common usage of the term hard sci-fi only requires that the first of these criteria be met, not necessarily both. Was this not what you meant?
Well, using the Internet as an example. There were some pretty good predictions about something like the Internet. But for someone in 1980, say, to write a story set in 2020 and come up with all of the consequences of the Internet would have been impossible. I don’t think anyone predicted Wikipedia or Facebook or 4chan or the impact those would have on our daily life. At least they didn’t predict the combined impact of all three and various other services besides. Heck, even we don’t yet know what all the consequences will be, since there are probably lots of ways of using the ’Net that still remain to be invented.
However, what they could do is to write a sci-fi story about the consequences they can imagine. Maybe they predicted online shopping, and e-mail and working remotely, or maybe they based their story on this eighties’ study. In any case, their story would have been consistent with what the science of 1980 knew.
If we apply both criteria 1 and 2, this would not have been hard sci-fi, as it couldn’t have predicted all the consequences of the Internet. If we apply only criterion 1, then it would have been hard sci-fi.
Likewise with the Singularity. We have no way of predicting all the things that a superintelligence might do. But we can come up with things that the superintelligent could plausibly do, that’s consistent with science as we know it. If someone writes a story where a superintelligence escapes into the Internet by hacking a million computers and running as a distributed intelligence, and then launces a brilliant social engineering scheme targeting all of humanity after it has read all the psych, sociology and marketing papers ever published—well, that contradicts no science that we know of. So going only by the first criterion, that’s hard sci-fi.
I don’t think I really have your concept of a surface level discrete “consequence”. One intuition is telling me I’m thinking to much like reality, I’m not really sure how that’d work but it probably has something to do with how the simulations authors have in their heads are different from reality. I’m not really in the best condition right now maybe I’ll get it later.
Ghost in the Shell does it pretty well, IMO. Well enough to suspend disbelief, at least.
It does it well enough to provoke a “huh, this is pretty interesting and thoughtful” response, but well enough that we won’t be embarrassed by it in fifty years? I’d give very steep odds on that.
Creating a sci fi setting well enough that the audience can suspend disbelief is very different from creating one that’s accurately predictive.
No it dosn’t. I haven’t seen it but I know nothing like that exists.
I’d wager it’s the second solution.
Being able to suspend disbelief is not correlated, it just means it’s a good story. (with a few exceptions, and possible interpersonal variance) disbelief can be suspended just as well to fantasy as to reports of real world events if they are written well enough.
Again, none of this is an attack on the works artistic merit, or their entertainment value, or even their usefulness for learning about science or rationality. But if you think scifi that can lay similar claims to being prophetic that it did a few decades ago is possible today you’re wrong.
Ok, that’s a horrible simplification. I suck at trying to explain things. Basically want I’m saying is that when the standards of hard scifi were developed you could predict indefinitely into the future and still stay within the bounds, but with what we know now, ESPECIALLY someone on LW, that claim cant be honestly made more than a decade or so into the future except in highly contrived circumstances. All the really good transhumanist fiction (that comes to mind at the moment) break some of the implicit rules (if I had actually watched GitS I would probably have listed the way it does so here), or even plain admits to following narrative laws.
You will probably not notice it in most cases, at least not consciously. Most of it is subtly implicit.
I don’t think scifi could ever “lay claims on being prophetic”. It was always more about exploring interesting ideas and look at the stories you could tell than trying to predict anything, AFAIK.
That it’s that way nowadays is what my entire point is. But there is also the notion of the ideal of scifi Hardness. I’m not sure it actually ever existed, but I’m given the impression that at the time they were published things like Asimovs robot series, 1984, (or way back before the ideal even existed: the works of Jules Verne) were considered to be literally possible and unlikely only by virtue of conjunction not any fundamental limitation on what the author could imagine.
Maybe you’ve read less old scifi and thus been less exposed to this ideal?
I haven’t read Verne, but I’ve read 1984, as well as a bunch of works by Asimov and Clarke. I’m not sure if the ideal you’re describing existed or not, but it doesn’t seem to be part of the way the term “hard science fiction” is used today. Today, it just means science fiction that’s scientifically rigorous in the sense of being consistent with all currently known science.
Now I’m confused. “scientifically rigorous in the sense of being consistent with all currently known science.” seems equivalent of “considered to be literally possible and unlikely only by virtue of conjunction not any fundamental limitation on what the author could imagine”, both impossible.
And yea I read the links, their definitions are not exactly the same but close enough, but they seem to qualify specific works and authors much higher than I.
I thought that by “considered to be literally possible and unlikely only by virtue of conjunction not any fundamental limitation on what the author could imagine”, you meant two things:
First, the definition of hard sci-fi as given in those links, i.e. nothing in the story must contradict currently known science.
Second, that the consequences of those technologies must be humanly imaginable and in principle predictable by the author. In other words, after-the-Singularity stories cannot be considered hard sci-fi, because it’s fundamentally impossible for us to imagine the consequences of a greater-than-human intelligence.
I was saying that the common usage of the term hard sci-fi only requires that the first of these criteria be met, not necessarily both. Was this not what you meant?
I am unable to distinguish between these, or even clearly comprehend what such a distinction would mean.
Well, using the Internet as an example. There were some pretty good predictions about something like the Internet. But for someone in 1980, say, to write a story set in 2020 and come up with all of the consequences of the Internet would have been impossible. I don’t think anyone predicted Wikipedia or Facebook or 4chan or the impact those would have on our daily life. At least they didn’t predict the combined impact of all three and various other services besides. Heck, even we don’t yet know what all the consequences will be, since there are probably lots of ways of using the ’Net that still remain to be invented.
However, what they could do is to write a sci-fi story about the consequences they can imagine. Maybe they predicted online shopping, and e-mail and working remotely, or maybe they based their story on this eighties’ study. In any case, their story would have been consistent with what the science of 1980 knew.
If we apply both criteria 1 and 2, this would not have been hard sci-fi, as it couldn’t have predicted all the consequences of the Internet. If we apply only criterion 1, then it would have been hard sci-fi.
Likewise with the Singularity. We have no way of predicting all the things that a superintelligence might do. But we can come up with things that the superintelligent could plausibly do, that’s consistent with science as we know it. If someone writes a story where a superintelligence escapes into the Internet by hacking a million computers and running as a distributed intelligence, and then launces a brilliant social engineering scheme targeting all of humanity after it has read all the psych, sociology and marketing papers ever published—well, that contradicts no science that we know of. So going only by the first criterion, that’s hard sci-fi.
I don’t think I really have your concept of a surface level discrete “consequence”. One intuition is telling me I’m thinking to much like reality, I’m not really sure how that’d work but it probably has something to do with how the simulations authors have in their heads are different from reality. I’m not really in the best condition right now maybe I’ll get it later.