Oops! There was a problem with my simulation, where the random numbers were repeating. I fixed it, and the results changed. It now took about 45% infected before R dropped below 1. That’s for a geometric (exponential) distribution of spreaders. For a uniform distribution, it should take 75% with R0=4.
It’s hard to figure out what geometric distribution gives the equivalent initial R0=4 by trial and error, but maybe I’ll calculate it by expectation just to get the 45% firmed up better.
When I tried a more spread-out distribution, I didn’t get that much below 45% for anything plausible. I actually squared the relative weightings (so if A had 4x as many chances to spread as B, he now has 16x), and I don’t think it dropped below 40%. Too lazy do walk over to double-check my notes as I write this.
Oops! There was a problem with my simulation, where the random numbers were repeating. I fixed it, and the results changed. It now took about 45% infected before R dropped below 1. That’s for a geometric (exponential) distribution of spreaders. For a uniform distribution, it should take 75% with R0=4.
It’s hard to figure out what geometric distribution gives the equivalent initial R0=4 by trial and error, but maybe I’ll calculate it by expectation just to get the 45% firmed up better.
When I tried a more spread-out distribution, I didn’t get that much below 45% for anything plausible. I actually squared the relative weightings (so if A had 4x as many chances to spread as B, he now has 16x), and I don’t think it dropped below 40%. Too lazy do walk over to double-check my notes as I write this.