I think yes—strong beliefs from a single event that contains a fair bit of randomess is generally a mistake. The author’s labeling of “fool” and “wise men” is likewise a red herring, to show us that our initial evaluation is also a mistake.
The only successful strategy in the parable is the one taken by “the superiors”—send other people into your fights, perhaps some will succeed.
I think yes—strong beliefs from a single event that contains a fair bit of randomess is generally a mistake. The author’s labeling of “fool” and “wise men” is likewise a red herring, to show us that our initial evaluation is also a mistake.
The only successful strategy in the parable is the one taken by “the superiors”—send other people into your fights, perhaps some will succeed.