Would you care to make forecasts for things such as:
I made your question into a poll:
(a) the date that the first commercial driverless car will hit the market in a major country or US state?
Estimated year: [pollid:730]
(b) the date by which over 10% of new cars sold in a large country or US state will be driverless (i.e., capable of fully autonomous operation),
Estimated year: [pollid:731]
(c) same as (b), but over 50%,
Estimated year: [pollid:732]
(d) the date by which over 10% of cars on the road (in a large country or US state) will be operating autonomously,
Estimated year: [pollid:733]
(e) same as (d), but over 50%. You don’t have to answer these exact questions,
Estimated year: [pollid:734]
What’s your overall view on whether it is desirable at the margin to speed up or slow down the arrival of autonomous vehicles on the road?
[pollid:735]
I made your question into a poll:
Estimated year: [pollid:730]
Estimated year: [pollid:731]
Estimated year: [pollid:732]
(d) the date by which over 10% of cars on the road (in a large country or US state) will be operating autonomously,
Estimated year: [pollid:733]
(e) same as (d), but over 50%. You don’t have to answer these exact questions,
Estimated year: [pollid:734]
[pollid:735]