Not true. Most financial markets are prediction markets. They seem to be popular.
That may be technically true, but only in a superficial sense. Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events, except in the very long term. That’s very different from markets like https://www.predictit.org which have clear connections to things like who will win elections and objective criteria.
Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events
First, I didn’t say “stocks”, I said “financial markets”.
Second, all markets, prediction included, have a complicated relationship to real-world events. The markets strongly react to some, weakly react to others, and ignore the great majority of them.
I think you’re trying to say that financial markets ignore some events you’re interested in. That’s a fair point, but it also applies to all markets.
That may be technically true, but only in a superficial sense. Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events, except in the very long term. That’s very different from markets like https://www.predictit.org which have clear connections to things like who will win elections and objective criteria.
First, I didn’t say “stocks”, I said “financial markets”.
Second, all markets, prediction included, have a complicated relationship to real-world events. The markets strongly react to some, weakly react to others, and ignore the great majority of them.
I think you’re trying to say that financial markets ignore some events you’re interested in. That’s a fair point, but it also applies to all markets.