Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events
First, I didn’t say “stocks”, I said “financial markets”.
Second, all markets, prediction included, have a complicated relationship to real-world events. The markets strongly react to some, weakly react to others, and ignore the great majority of them.
I think you’re trying to say that financial markets ignore some events you’re interested in. That’s a fair point, but it also applies to all markets.
First, I didn’t say “stocks”, I said “financial markets”.
Second, all markets, prediction included, have a complicated relationship to real-world events. The markets strongly react to some, weakly react to others, and ignore the great majority of them.
I think you’re trying to say that financial markets ignore some events you’re interested in. That’s a fair point, but it also applies to all markets.