I find both directions plausible. I do agree that I don’t see any existing institutions ready to take it’s place, but looking at secular solstice, for example, I definitely expect that better institutions are possible.
There might be a sufficiency stagnation following similar mechanics to crowding out, since people have a “good enough” option they don’t try to build better things, and centralized leadership causes institutional conservatism.
I would bet this is supported by worse outcomes for more centralized churches, like unitarians vs megachurches or orthodox catholics, but that’s a weakly held belief.
The sufficiency stagnation point is a good one, especially given that is suggests that the people becoming religious on the margin are likely to be the best individuals of the population not currently committed to strong social institutions, to start better ones than religions.
Potentially a crux is that the ideas that really broad social institutions can be based around may mostly be based around certain types of really strong emotions like tribalism and faith, the crux being if ‘mostly’ means 90%, 99% or 99.999%.
I find both directions plausible. I do agree that I don’t see any existing institutions ready to take it’s place, but looking at secular solstice, for example, I definitely expect that better institutions are possible.
There might be a sufficiency stagnation following similar mechanics to crowding out, since people have a “good enough” option they don’t try to build better things, and centralized leadership causes institutional conservatism.
I would bet this is supported by worse outcomes for more centralized churches, like unitarians vs megachurches or orthodox catholics, but that’s a weakly held belief.
The sufficiency stagnation point is a good one, especially given that is suggests that the people becoming religious on the margin are likely to be the best individuals of the population not currently committed to strong social institutions, to start better ones than religions.
Potentially a crux is that the ideas that really broad social institutions can be based around may mostly be based around certain types of really strong emotions like tribalism and faith, the crux being if ‘mostly’ means 90%, 99% or 99.999%.