The point isn’t that there is a small random percentage chance of failure/success. Your tree doesn’t have 1/1000 chance of growing to 12,000 feet, there are structural problems with the way the world works that make it functionally impossible. There are trees near ten thousand years old, none of which have grown anywhere near that tall, because the number we assign to “growth rate” is actually one of the very very many variables that affect which trees can exist and how they do so. Using a self-multiplying “Growth-rate” number to try to figure out how your investment fund is going to do in 12k years is ignoring just as many variables.
The point isn’t that there is a small random percentage chance of failure/success. Your tree doesn’t have 1/1000 chance of growing to 12,000 feet, there are structural problems with the way the world works that make it functionally impossible. There are trees near ten thousand years old, none of which have grown anywhere near that tall, because the number we assign to “growth rate” is actually one of the very very many variables that affect which trees can exist and how they do so. Using a self-multiplying “Growth-rate” number to try to figure out how your investment fund is going to do in 12k years is ignoring just as many variables.