My scenario #1 explicitly says that even in the face of a slowdown, we’ll see doubling times of 10-25 years: “If the doubling time reverts to the norm seen in other cutting-edge industrial sectors, namely 10-25 years, then we’d probably see the introduction of revolutionary new product categories only about once a generation.”
So I’m not predicting complete stagnation, just a slowdown where computing power gains aren’t happening fast enough for us to see new products every few years.
My scenario #1 explicitly says that even in the face of a slowdown, we’ll see doubling times of 10-25 years: “If the doubling time reverts to the norm seen in other cutting-edge industrial sectors, namely 10-25 years, then we’d probably see the introduction of revolutionary new product categories only about once a generation.”
So I’m not predicting complete stagnation, just a slowdown where computing power gains aren’t happening fast enough for us to see new products every few years.