I’ve mostly been aware of the planning fallacy and how despite knowing of it for many years it still often affects me (mostly for things where I simply lack the awareness of realizing that the planning fallacy would play a role at all; so not so much for big projects, but rather for things that I never really focus on explicitly, such as overhead when getting somewhere). The second category you mention however is something I too experience frequently, but having lacked a term (/model) for it, I didn’t really think about it as a thing.
I wonder what classes of problems typically fall into the different categories. At first I thought it may simply depend on whether I feel positive or negative about a task (positive → overly optimistic → planning fallacy; negative → pessimistic → vortex of dread), but the “overhead when getting somewhere” example doesn’t really fit the theory, and also one typical example for the planning fallacy is students having to hand in an assignment by a certain date, which usually is more on the negative side. But I guess the resolution to this is simply that the vortex of dread is not different from the planning fallacy, but a frequent cause of it.
we tend to overestimate how long things take that we feel negative about → vortex of dread
this causes us to procrastinate it more than we otherwise would → planning fallacy (so the “net time” is lower than anticipated, but the total time until completion is longer than anticipated)
Which leaves me with three scenarios:
positive things → planning fallacy due to optimism
negative things → vortex of dread → planning fallacy due to procrastination
trivial things I fail to explicitly think about → planning fallacy due to ignorance/negligence
And thus there may be different approaches to solving each of them, such as
pre-mortem / murphyjitsu, outside view
knowing about the vortex of dread concept, yoda timers, scheduling, intentionality
I’ve mostly been aware of the planning fallacy and how despite knowing of it for many years it still often affects me (mostly for things where I simply lack the awareness of realizing that the planning fallacy would play a role at all; so not so much for big projects, but rather for things that I never really focus on explicitly, such as overhead when getting somewhere). The second category you mention however is something I too experience frequently, but having lacked a term (/model) for it, I didn’t really think about it as a thing.
I wonder what classes of problems typically fall into the different categories. At first I thought it may simply depend on whether I feel positive or negative about a task (positive → overly optimistic → planning fallacy; negative → pessimistic → vortex of dread), but the “overhead when getting somewhere” example doesn’t really fit the theory, and also one typical example for the planning fallacy is students having to hand in an assignment by a certain date, which usually is more on the negative side. But I guess the resolution to this is simply that the vortex of dread is not different from the planning fallacy, but a frequent cause of it.
we tend to overestimate how long things take that we feel negative about → vortex of dread
this causes us to procrastinate it more than we otherwise would → planning fallacy (so the “net time” is lower than anticipated, but the total time until completion is longer than anticipated)
Which leaves me with three scenarios:
positive things → planning fallacy due to optimism
negative things → vortex of dread → planning fallacy due to procrastination
trivial things I fail to explicitly think about → planning fallacy due to ignorance/negligence
And thus there may be different approaches to solving each of them, such as
pre-mortem / murphyjitsu, outside view
knowing about the vortex of dread concept, yoda timers, scheduling, intentionality
TAPs I guess?