I agree that when you feel sure of your reasoning, you are generally more likely right than when you aren’t sure.
But when you cross into feeling certain, you should suspect cognitive bias. And when you encounter other people who are certain, you should question whether they might also have cognitive bias. Particularly when they are certain on topics that other smart and educated people disagree with them on.
This is not a 100% rule. But I’ve found it a useful guideline.
I agree that when you feel sure of your reasoning, you are generally more likely right than when you aren’t sure.
But when you cross into feeling certain, you should suspect cognitive bias. And when you encounter other people who are certain, you should question whether they might also have cognitive bias. Particularly when they are certain on topics that other smart and educated people disagree with them on.
This is not a 100% rule. But I’ve found it a useful guideline.