My expectation that such commitment is possible at all is something like 3%, my expectation that given that such a commitment is possible, the proof can be presented in understandable format in less than 4 pages is 5% (one line is so unlikely it’s hard to even imagine), my expectation that an AI can make a proof that I would mistake for being true when it is, in fact, false is 99%. So, multiplying that all together… does not make that a very convincing argument.
My expectation that such commitment is possible at all is something like 3%, my expectation that given that such a commitment is possible, the proof can be presented in understandable format in less than 4 pages is 5% (one line is so unlikely it’s hard to even imagine), my expectation that an AI can make a proof that I would mistake for being true when it is, in fact, false is 99%. So, multiplying that all together… does not make that a very convincing argument.