This is great, but also misses the loopyness. If GPT12 looks at the future, surely most of that future is massively shaped by GPT12. We are in fixed point, self fulfilling prophecy land. (Or, if you somehow condition on its current output being nothing, then the next slightly different attempt with GPT13. ) If GPT-n doubles the chance of success, the only fixed point is success.
Yup, I intentionally didn’t go into the whole stable fixed-point thing in this post, it’s a whole complicated can of worms which applies in multiple different ways to multiple different schemes.
This is great, but also misses the loopyness. If GPT12 looks at the future, surely most of that future is massively shaped by GPT12. We are in fixed point, self fulfilling prophecy land. (Or, if you somehow condition on its current output being nothing, then the next slightly different attempt with GPT13. ) If GPT-n doubles the chance of success, the only fixed point is success.
Yup, I intentionally didn’t go into the whole stable fixed-point thing in this post, it’s a whole complicated can of worms which applies in multiple different ways to multiple different schemes.