I also think that intelligent agents throw off this kind of analysis. For example, suppose you enter a room and find that I have 10 coins laid out on a table, all heads. Did this happen by chance? It’s unlikely: 1 in 1024. Except obviously I arranged them all to be heads, I didn’t just get lucky. Because I’m intelligent, I can make the probability whatever I want.
I also think that intelligent agents throw off this kind of analysis. For example, suppose you enter a room and find that I have 10 coins laid out on a table, all heads. Did this happen by chance? It’s unlikely: 1 in 1024. Except obviously I arranged them all to be heads, I didn’t just get lucky. Because I’m intelligent, I can make the probability whatever I want.