I want to solve these problems in 15 years, not 20. … the time it takes to solve a problem expands to meet the time you’re given.
15 years is much too much; if you haven’t solved metaethics after 15 years of serious effort, you probably never will. The only things that’re actually time consuming on that scale are getting stopped with no idea how to proceed, and wrong turns into muck. I see no reason why a sufficiently clear thinker couldn’t finish a correct and detailed metaethics in a month.
I see no reason why a sufficiently clear thinker couldn’t finish a correct and detailed metaethics in a month.
I suppose if you let “sufficiently clear thinker” do enough work this is just trivial.
But it’s a sui generis problem… I’m not sure what information a time table could be based on other than the fact that it has been way longer than a month and no one has succeeded yet.
It is also worth keeping in mind, that scientific discoveries routinely impact the concepts we use to understand the world. The computational model of the human brain was generated as a hypothesis until after we had built computers and could see what they do, even though, in principle that hypothesis could have been invented at nearly any point in history. So it seems plausible the crucial insight needed for a successful metaethics will come from a scientific discovery that someone concentrating on philosophy for a month wouldn’t make.
But it’s a sui generis problem… I’m not sure what information a time table could be based on other than the fact that it has been way longer than a month and no one has succeeded yet.
Supposing anyone had already succeeded, how strong an expectation do you think we should have of knowing about it?
Not all that strong. It may well be out there in some obscure journal but just wasn’t interesting enough for anyone to bother replying to. Hell, it multiple people may have succeeded.
But I think “success” might actually be underdetermined here. Some philosophers may have had the right insights, but I suspect that if they had communicated those insights in the formal method necessary for Friendly AI the insights would have felt insightful to readers and the papers would have gotten attention. Of course, I’m not even familiar with cutting edge metaethics. There may well be something like that out there. It doesn’t help that no one here seems willing to actually read philosophy in non-blog format.
It may well be out there in some obscure journal but just wasn’t interesting enough for anyone to bother replying to. Hell, it multiple people may have succeeded.
The computational model of the human brain was generated as a hypothesis until after we had built computers and could see what they do, even though, in principle that hypothesis could have been invented at nearly any point in history.
I think it’s correct, but it’s definitely not detailed; some major questions, like “how to weight and reconcile conflicting preferences”, are skipped entirely.
I think it’s correct, but it’s definitely not detailed;
What do you believe to be the reasons? Didn’t he try or fail? I’m trying to fathom what kind of person is a sufficiently clear thinker. If not even EY is a sufficiently clear thinker, then your statement that such a person could come up with a detailed metaethics in a month seems self-evident. If someone is a sufficiently clear thinker to accomplish a certain task then they will complete it if they try. What’s the point? It sounds like you are saying that there are many smart people that could accomplish the task if they only tried. But if in fact EY is not one of them, that’s bad.
Yesterday I read In Praise of Boredom. It seems that EY also views intelligence as something proactive:
...if I ever do fully understand the algorithms of intelligence, it will destroy all remaining novelty—no matter what new situation I encounter, I’ll know I can solve it just by being intelligent...
No doubt I am a complete layman when it comes to what intelligence is. But as far as I am aware it is a kind of goal-oriented evolutionary process equipped with a memory. It is evolutionary insofar as it still needs to stumble upon novelty. Intelligence is not a meta-solution but an efficient searchlight that helps to discover unknown unknowns. Intelligence is also a tool that can efficiently exploit previous discoveries, combine and permute them. But claiming that you just have to be sufficiently intelligent to solve a given problem sounds like it is more than that. I don’t see that. I think that if something crucial is missing, something you don’t know that it is missing, you’ll have to discover it first and not invent it by the sheer power of intelligence.
A month sounds considerably overoptimistic to me. Wrong steps and backtracking are probably to be expected, and it would probably be irresponsible to commit to a solution before allowing other intelligent people (who really want to find the right answer, not carry on endless debate) to review it in detail. For a sufficiently intelligent and committed worker, I would not be surprised if they could produce a reliably correct metaethical theory within two years, perhaps one, but a month strikes me as too restrictive.
15 years is much too much; if you haven’t solved metaethics after 15 years of serious effort, you probably never will. The only things that’re actually time consuming on that scale are getting stopped with no idea how to proceed, and wrong turns into muck. I see no reason why a sufficiently clear thinker couldn’t finish a correct and detailed metaethics in a month.
I suppose if you let “sufficiently clear thinker” do enough work this is just trivial.
But it’s a sui generis problem… I’m not sure what information a time table could be based on other than the fact that it has been way longer than a month and no one has succeeded yet.
It is also worth keeping in mind, that scientific discoveries routinely impact the concepts we use to understand the world. The computational model of the human brain was generated as a hypothesis until after we had built computers and could see what they do, even though, in principle that hypothesis could have been invented at nearly any point in history. So it seems plausible the crucial insight needed for a successful metaethics will come from a scientific discovery that someone concentrating on philosophy for a month wouldn’t make.
Supposing anyone had already succeeded, how strong an expectation do you think we should have of knowing about it?
Not all that strong. It may well be out there in some obscure journal but just wasn’t interesting enough for anyone to bother replying to. Hell, it multiple people may have succeeded.
But I think “success” might actually be underdetermined here. Some philosophers may have had the right insights, but I suspect that if they had communicated those insights in the formal method necessary for Friendly AI the insights would have felt insightful to readers and the papers would have gotten attention. Of course, I’m not even familiar with cutting edge metaethics. There may well be something like that out there. It doesn’t help that no one here seems willing to actually read philosophy in non-blog format.
Yep:
Related question: suppose someone handed us a successful solution, would we recognize it?
Yep.
So Yudkowsky came up with a correct and detailed metaethics but failed to communicate it?
I think it’s correct, but it’s definitely not detailed; some major questions, like “how to weight and reconcile conflicting preferences”, are skipped entirely.
What do you believe to be the reasons? Didn’t he try or fail? I’m trying to fathom what kind of person is a sufficiently clear thinker. If not even EY is a sufficiently clear thinker, then your statement that such a person could come up with a detailed metaethics in a month seems self-evident. If someone is a sufficiently clear thinker to accomplish a certain task then they will complete it if they try. What’s the point? It sounds like you are saying that there are many smart people that could accomplish the task if they only tried. But if in fact EY is not one of them, that’s bad.
Yesterday I read In Praise of Boredom. It seems that EY also views intelligence as something proactive:
No doubt I am a complete layman when it comes to what intelligence is. But as far as I am aware it is a kind of goal-oriented evolutionary process equipped with a memory. It is evolutionary insofar as it still needs to stumble upon novelty. Intelligence is not a meta-solution but an efficient searchlight that helps to discover unknown unknowns. Intelligence is also a tool that can efficiently exploit previous discoveries, combine and permute them. But claiming that you just have to be sufficiently intelligent to solve a given problem sounds like it is more than that. I don’t see that. I think that if something crucial is missing, something you don’t know that it is missing, you’ll have to discover it first and not invent it by the sheer power of intelligence.
By “a sufficiently clear thinker” you mean an AI++, right? :)
Nah, an AI++ would take maybe five minutes.
A month sounds considerably overoptimistic to me. Wrong steps and backtracking are probably to be expected, and it would probably be irresponsible to commit to a solution before allowing other intelligent people (who really want to find the right answer, not carry on endless debate) to review it in detail. For a sufficiently intelligent and committed worker, I would not be surprised if they could produce a reliably correct metaethical theory within two years, perhaps one, but a month strikes me as too restrictive.