Thanks for explaining. I’m more convinced you’re right math wise, though I haven’t verified for myself.
I don’t think understanding this or working it out correctly will help in actual conversations with people about their beliefs though. (In fact, I get the most out of it by just drawing the picture of beliefs and connected reasons, and writing estimates probabilities. It really helps keep track of what’s said and makes circular reasoning very clear.)
Are you saying there is a practical reason for doing so? I can’t imagine one for the average university student I run into, let alone less technical people. Maybe with oneself or someone technical?
Having in mind that we are measuring bits of evidence tells us that to give percentages, we must establish a baseline prior probability that we would assign without reasons.
Mostly you should be fine, just have heuristics for the anomalies near 0 and 1 - if one belief pushes the probability to .5 and another to .6, then the prior was noticeably far from zero or getting only the second reason won’t be noticeable either.
Thanks for explaining. I’m more convinced you’re right math wise, though I haven’t verified for myself.
I don’t think understanding this or working it out correctly will help in actual conversations with people about their beliefs though. (In fact, I get the most out of it by just drawing the picture of beliefs and connected reasons, and writing estimates probabilities. It really helps keep track of what’s said and makes circular reasoning very clear.)
Are you saying there is a practical reason for doing so? I can’t imagine one for the average university student I run into, let alone less technical people. Maybe with oneself or someone technical?
Having in mind that we are measuring bits of evidence tells us that to give percentages, we must establish a baseline prior probability that we would assign without reasons.
Mostly you should be fine, just have heuristics for the anomalies near 0 and 1 - if one belief pushes the probability to .5 and another to .6, then the prior was noticeably far from zero or getting only the second reason won’t be noticeable either.