It does? Assuming a deterministic universe (which would seem to be necessary for Omega to predict with 100% certainty whether someone 1-boxes or 2-boxes) then it isn’t the act of taking one or two boxes that causes the $1M to be present or absent, but rather both those events share a common cause (namely whatever circumstances were present to cause the subject to pick their Newcombe strategy).
If Omega can’t predict with certainty then two-boxing is possibly the right answer, depending on exactly how good Omega is at “reading” people and how much money is potentially in the boxes. If this really happened to me, I’ve got no idea how I would decide. I would probably think some kind of trick was going on and after checking all the fine print for loopholes and one-box the million with some kind of witnesses around to grab the old man behind the curtain and have him charged with fraud if the money wasn’t there. If he had some legal escape hatch I could spot, then I’d probably one-box the $1k since I’d think it unlikely someone would give up $999,000 if they could get away with it.
Agree that picking up women isn’t newcombelike, though. I get how being nervous can be like 1-boxing the $1k, and being honestly confident might be like one-boxing the $1M (maybe?) but I have no idea what corresponds to 2-boxing.
It does? Assuming a deterministic universe (which would seem to be necessary for Omega to predict with 100% certainty whether someone 1-boxes or 2-boxes) then it isn’t the act of taking one or two boxes that causes the $1M to be present or absent, but rather both those events share a common cause (namely whatever circumstances were present to cause the subject to pick their Newcombe strategy).
If Omega can’t predict with certainty then two-boxing is possibly the right answer, depending on exactly how good Omega is at “reading” people and how much money is potentially in the boxes. If this really happened to me, I’ve got no idea how I would decide. I would probably think some kind of trick was going on and after checking all the fine print for loopholes and one-box the million with some kind of witnesses around to grab the old man behind the curtain and have him charged with fraud if the money wasn’t there. If he had some legal escape hatch I could spot, then I’d probably one-box the $1k since I’d think it unlikely someone would give up $999,000 if they could get away with it.
Agree that picking up women isn’t newcombelike, though. I get how being nervous can be like 1-boxing the $1k, and being honestly confident might be like one-boxing the $1M (maybe?) but I have no idea what corresponds to 2-boxing.