Here’s something I’d love to put into an entire article, but can’t because my karma’s bad (see my other comment on this thread):
Many people make the false assumption that the scientific method starts with the hypothesis. They think: first hypothesize, then observe, then make a theory from the collection of hypotheses.
The reality is quite the opposite. The first point on the scientific method is the observation. Any hypotheses before observation will only diminish the pool of possible observations. Second is building a theory. Along the process, many things are observed without using a hypothesis to observe them; only needing a question and a desire to explore for the answer. Last is using the theory to create hypotheses; which are then used to confirm, alter, or reject the theory.
The exploration phase is where interesting new observations come up for the first time, and everyone who nears the end of this phase wants to talk to people about it; because it’s really cool! Lots of amazing stuff is observed before any real theory can be made. Lots of plausible, valid, and important ideas come up which should indeed be discussed, as they are relevant to many subjects.
However, the people who take the wrong path, make the false assumption that the scientific method starts with the hypothesis, are afraid to take a step out of their reality. Taking in new information as an observation with no hypothesis or theory attached, which is what is available to them from the exploration stage, would be taking a step out of their reality.
the response you get of “why should I believe x? He doesn’t have a PhD” is fundamentally the same as the response “prove it. Until you prove it, why should I listen to you?”. These people don’t want to observe or theorize. They don’t want to explore. They don’t want to work toward the goal I want to work toward. They want to stay in their world until they have a reason to involve something new in their world. The result of that isn’t an improvement, either, because they still have the same problem of living in their own world.
This objection is a fallacy coming from false assumptions. The thing I have observed to be a/the source of this fallacy is the false start of the scientific method cycle.
FYI, “pseudo-scientists” have a related problem where they are either unable or unwilling to leave the exploration phase (often because the theory they are exploring is wrong, but sometimes because they’re just looking in the wrong direction).
Religions have another related problem where they are unable or unwilling to enter the exploration phase; which is not entirely unlike the problem I described about normal science, which is why many people call science a religion.
This isn’t related to the entire post so much as it is a response to the problem with the scientific method. The scientific method does start with a hypothesis in relation to individual experiments. The hypothesis starts with general observations made from previous experiments or just some kind of general observation.
If we assume complete ignorance about NaCl (Sodium Chloride), but previously observed that pure sodium (Na) explodes in the presence of water, we might decide to devise an experiment to see what happens when we place other compounds with sodium in water. Our hypothesis might be something like, everything that has sodium explodes in water. It is not necessary to write down this hypothesis, because the hypotheses we generally make are made in our head when we are not in some kind of laboratory setting. By that I mean we constantly make hypotheses about subjects before we observe the results of our ‘experiments.’
Anyway, we toss a block of sodium chloride in a bucket of water and observe that an explosion does not immediately follow. We had previous observations from former experiments, or general observations, to suggest that stuff with sodium will explode, but our observational evidence suggests that our previously made hypothesis is not true.
We make plenty of observations before making hypotheses, but we always make some sort of hypothesis before making some sort of observation when starting an experiment of any manner.
Most people don’t even go as far as to make a hypothesis there. It’s arguable that every time someone forms a question, it is the same as forming a hypothesis; purely because questions can be reworded as hypotheses. However, in the case of someone who is just exploring, they would not go so far as to hypothesize.
It’s normal for the person to say something like “I wonder if it happens with all sodium compounds” or, “I wonder if there are any sodium compounds that explode as well”. But in these cases, there is no basis and no reason to form a hypothesis. one could argue that the person is making a hypothesis like “all sodium compounds explode in water”; but the person doesn’t care. The person could just as easily make the hypothesis “no sodium compounds explode in water”. And there’s no reason to make either of these, or any hypothesis at all, because no theory has been formed that can be tested.
And further, making a hypothesis like this limits the amount of new information that can come in from these experiments. The information is now limited to “whether or not the substance explodes”, when there are plenty of other reactions that can happen. The person who makes this hypothesis is liable to miss small bubbles appearing. That is anti-desired when exploring, when trying to observe as much as possible so as to build a theory.
The point is that the person in your example is not doing a hypothesis experiment, the person is doing an exploration experiment. Unless a theory exists, there’s no basis for choosing any hypothesis at all.
Yet, let’s say then that the person discovered some cool stuff and started to build a theory. He wants to tell you about his in-progress theory. Obviously he hasn’t done any hypothesis experiments, because hypotheses haven’t mattered yet. He tells you about his observations, and his conjectures.
Many people, in response to this, say “can you prove it? Why should I believe you?”. To which he has no answer, because he has nothing to prove yet. All of his observations are just observations, and he has no solid theories. Because he has no theories, any temporary hypotheses he makes continuously jump around, and to an outside observer have no coherence or meaning. Any attempt at proving something will prove futile, and will be a waste of time, purely because there is nothing to prove.
The higher-level or higher-class version of this response is: “what are your credentials? Why should I believe you?”.
In this way my comment does relate to the entire post. Often times, there is no true objection. Often times, the objection is merely that someone is mentally lazy and doesn’t want to think or explore. Often times, the objection is that I haven’t formed a complete theory yet, only a list of observations and conjectures, so there’s nothing the person can believe in. The difference in opinion there is that I want to work with them and believe in nothing, and they want to work on their own and believe in something. It’s not that they object to the theory or observations or conjectures, they just object to thinking about it.
Here’s something I’d love to put into an entire article, but can’t because my karma’s bad (see my other comment on this thread):
Many people make the false assumption that the scientific method starts with the hypothesis. They think: first hypothesize, then observe, then make a theory from the collection of hypotheses.
The reality is quite the opposite. The first point on the scientific method is the observation. Any hypotheses before observation will only diminish the pool of possible observations. Second is building a theory. Along the process, many things are observed without using a hypothesis to observe them; only needing a question and a desire to explore for the answer. Last is using the theory to create hypotheses; which are then used to confirm, alter, or reject the theory.
The exploration phase is where interesting new observations come up for the first time, and everyone who nears the end of this phase wants to talk to people about it; because it’s really cool! Lots of amazing stuff is observed before any real theory can be made. Lots of plausible, valid, and important ideas come up which should indeed be discussed, as they are relevant to many subjects.
However, the people who take the wrong path, make the false assumption that the scientific method starts with the hypothesis, are afraid to take a step out of their reality. Taking in new information as an observation with no hypothesis or theory attached, which is what is available to them from the exploration stage, would be taking a step out of their reality.
the response you get of “why should I believe x? He doesn’t have a PhD” is fundamentally the same as the response “prove it. Until you prove it, why should I listen to you?”. These people don’t want to observe or theorize. They don’t want to explore. They don’t want to work toward the goal I want to work toward. They want to stay in their world until they have a reason to involve something new in their world. The result of that isn’t an improvement, either, because they still have the same problem of living in their own world.
This objection is a fallacy coming from false assumptions. The thing I have observed to be a/the source of this fallacy is the false start of the scientific method cycle.
FYI, “pseudo-scientists” have a related problem where they are either unable or unwilling to leave the exploration phase (often because the theory they are exploring is wrong, but sometimes because they’re just looking in the wrong direction). Religions have another related problem where they are unable or unwilling to enter the exploration phase; which is not entirely unlike the problem I described about normal science, which is why many people call science a religion.
This isn’t related to the entire post so much as it is a response to the problem with the scientific method. The scientific method does start with a hypothesis in relation to individual experiments. The hypothesis starts with general observations made from previous experiments or just some kind of general observation.
If we assume complete ignorance about NaCl (Sodium Chloride), but previously observed that pure sodium (Na) explodes in the presence of water, we might decide to devise an experiment to see what happens when we place other compounds with sodium in water. Our hypothesis might be something like, everything that has sodium explodes in water. It is not necessary to write down this hypothesis, because the hypotheses we generally make are made in our head when we are not in some kind of laboratory setting. By that I mean we constantly make hypotheses about subjects before we observe the results of our ‘experiments.’
Anyway, we toss a block of sodium chloride in a bucket of water and observe that an explosion does not immediately follow. We had previous observations from former experiments, or general observations, to suggest that stuff with sodium will explode, but our observational evidence suggests that our previously made hypothesis is not true.
We make plenty of observations before making hypotheses, but we always make some sort of hypothesis before making some sort of observation when starting an experiment of any manner.
Most people don’t even go as far as to make a hypothesis there. It’s arguable that every time someone forms a question, it is the same as forming a hypothesis; purely because questions can be reworded as hypotheses. However, in the case of someone who is just exploring, they would not go so far as to hypothesize.
It’s normal for the person to say something like “I wonder if it happens with all sodium compounds” or, “I wonder if there are any sodium compounds that explode as well”. But in these cases, there is no basis and no reason to form a hypothesis. one could argue that the person is making a hypothesis like “all sodium compounds explode in water”; but the person doesn’t care. The person could just as easily make the hypothesis “no sodium compounds explode in water”. And there’s no reason to make either of these, or any hypothesis at all, because no theory has been formed that can be tested.
And further, making a hypothesis like this limits the amount of new information that can come in from these experiments. The information is now limited to “whether or not the substance explodes”, when there are plenty of other reactions that can happen. The person who makes this hypothesis is liable to miss small bubbles appearing. That is anti-desired when exploring, when trying to observe as much as possible so as to build a theory.
The point is that the person in your example is not doing a hypothesis experiment, the person is doing an exploration experiment. Unless a theory exists, there’s no basis for choosing any hypothesis at all.
Yet, let’s say then that the person discovered some cool stuff and started to build a theory. He wants to tell you about his in-progress theory. Obviously he hasn’t done any hypothesis experiments, because hypotheses haven’t mattered yet. He tells you about his observations, and his conjectures. Many people, in response to this, say “can you prove it? Why should I believe you?”. To which he has no answer, because he has nothing to prove yet. All of his observations are just observations, and he has no solid theories. Because he has no theories, any temporary hypotheses he makes continuously jump around, and to an outside observer have no coherence or meaning. Any attempt at proving something will prove futile, and will be a waste of time, purely because there is nothing to prove.
The higher-level or higher-class version of this response is: “what are your credentials? Why should I believe you?”.
In this way my comment does relate to the entire post. Often times, there is no true objection. Often times, the objection is merely that someone is mentally lazy and doesn’t want to think or explore. Often times, the objection is that I haven’t formed a complete theory yet, only a list of observations and conjectures, so there’s nothing the person can believe in. The difference in opinion there is that I want to work with them and believe in nothing, and they want to work on their own and believe in something. It’s not that they object to the theory or observations or conjectures, they just object to thinking about it.