> Still kept the nearest neighbors calculation to account for any other location relevance (there is a little but much less now). That left me with 4 nines of correlation between predicted & actual performance,
Interesting, that definitely suggests some additional influences that we haven’t explicitly taken account of, rather than random variation.
> added a quadratic term to my rescaling of Local Value of Pi (because the dropoff from 3.15 isn’t linear)
As did aphyer, but I didn’t see any such effect, which is really confusing me. I’m pretty sure I would have noticed it if it were anywhere near as large as aphyer shows in his post.
edit: on the pi issue see my reply to my own comment. Did you account for these factors as divisors dividing from a baseline, or multipliers multiplying a baseline (I did the latter)? edit: a converation with aphyer clarified this. I see you are predicting log performance, as with aphyer, so a linear effect on the multiplier would then have a log taken of it which makes it nonlinear.
> Still kept the nearest neighbors calculation to account for any other location relevance (there is a little but much less now). That left me with 4 nines of correlation between predicted & actual performance,
Interesting, that definitely suggests some additional influences that we haven’t explicitly taken account of, rather than random variation.
> added a quadratic term to my rescaling of Local Value of Pi (because the dropoff from 3.15 isn’t linear)
As did aphyer, but I didn’t see any such effect, which is really confusing me. I’m pretty sure I would have noticed it if it were anywhere near as large as aphyer shows in his post.
edit: on the pi issue see my reply to my own comment.
Did you account for these factors as divisors dividing from a baseline, ormultipliers multiplying a baseline (I did the latter)? edit: a converation with aphyer clarified this. I see you are predicting log performance, as with aphyer, so a linear effect on the multiplier would then have a log taken of it which makes it nonlinear.