Betting person X will not die of cancer might create an incentive for a cancer assassin, but that’s different then killing someone using any means.
Yeah, everything depends critically on which things get bet on in the market. If there’s a general life expectancy market, it’s an all-method assassination market. But it might happen that no one is interested in betting about that, and all the bets have to do with specific causes of death. Then things would be much more difficult for an assassin.
However, the more specific the claim being bet on, the lower the probably should be; so, the higher the reward for making it come true.
Yeah, everything depends critically on which things get bet on in the market. If there’s a general life expectancy market, it’s an all-method assassination market. But it might happen that no one is interested in betting about that, and all the bets have to do with specific causes of death. Then things would be much more difficult for an assassin.
However, the more specific the claim being bet on, the lower the probably should be; so, the higher the reward for making it come true.