Ah, yes, OK. I see I didn’t include a line which I had considered including, [1.5] Assume the players are bidding rationally. (Editing OP to include.) The character is an economist, so it makes sense that this would be a background assumption.
So then, the highest bidder is the person who expects to make the most, which is the person actually capable of making the most.
Of course, you also have to worry about conflict of interest (where someone can extract value from the company by means other than dividends). But if we’re using this as a model of a training process, the decision market is effectively the entire economy.
Ah, yes, OK. I see I didn’t include a line which I had considered including, [1.5] Assume the players are bidding rationally. (Editing OP to include.) The character is an economist, so it makes sense that this would be a background assumption.
So then, the highest bidder is the person who expects to make the most, which is the person actually capable of making the most.
Of course, you also have to worry about conflict of interest (where someone can extract value from the company by means other than dividends). But if we’re using this as a model of a training process, the decision market is effectively the entire economy.