I really appreciate you sharing a word for this distinction. I remember being in a discussion about the possibility of indefinite lifespans way back on the extropians mailing list, and this one person was making an argument about it being impossible due to accumulation of aleatory risk using life insurance actuarial models as a starting point. Their argument was fine as far as it went, but it created a lot of confusion when it seemed there was disagreement on just where the uncertainty lay, and I recall trying to disentangle that model confusion lead to a lot of hurt feelings. I think having some term like this to help separate the uncertainty about the model, the uncertainty due to random effects, and the uncertainty about the model implying certain level of uncertainty due to random effects would have helped tremendously.
I really appreciate you sharing a word for this distinction. I remember being in a discussion about the possibility of indefinite lifespans way back on the extropians mailing list, and this one person was making an argument about it being impossible due to accumulation of aleatory risk using life insurance actuarial models as a starting point. Their argument was fine as far as it went, but it created a lot of confusion when it seemed there was disagreement on just where the uncertainty lay, and I recall trying to disentangle that model confusion lead to a lot of hurt feelings. I think having some term like this to help separate the uncertainty about the model, the uncertainty due to random effects, and the uncertainty about the model implying certain level of uncertainty due to random effects would have helped tremendously.