I think you added an extra three zeros during your total year calculations. you list 2.23E15 as the total number of years experienced, but multiplying the total time of 5E4 by the current population of 8E9 gives a total of only 4E14 experience years. The true number must be quite a bit lower as the human population was quite a bit lower than 8 billion for most of that time. This also affects the proportion of experience years which have occurred in living memory. My guess is 20% have occurred since the birth of Kane Tanaka and 10% experienced by living people. This also squares pretty well with your figure of 50% of human experience occurring since 1300. It doesn’t really make since for 50% of experience to have occurred since 1300, but only 0.02% since 1903.
You are super right and that is exactly what happened—I checked the numbers and had made the order of magnitude three times larger. Thanks for the sanity checks and catch. It turns out this moves the midpoint up to 1432. Lemme fix the other numbers as well.
Update: Actually, it did nothing to the midpoint, which makes sense in retrospect (maybe?) but does change the “fraction of time” thing, as well as some of the Fermi estimates in the middle. 15% of experience has actually been experienced by living people, and 28% since Kane Tanaka’s birth. I’ve updated this here and on my blog.
I think you added an extra three zeros during your total year calculations. you list 2.23E15 as the total number of years experienced, but multiplying the total time of 5E4 by the current population of 8E9 gives a total of only 4E14 experience years. The true number must be quite a bit lower as the human population was quite a bit lower than 8 billion for most of that time. This also affects the proportion of experience years which have occurred in living memory. My guess is 20% have occurred since the birth of Kane Tanaka and 10% experienced by living people. This also squares pretty well with your figure of 50% of human experience occurring since 1300. It doesn’t really make since for 50% of experience to have occurred since 1300, but only 0.02% since 1903.
You are super right and that is exactly what happened—I checked the numbers and had made the order of magnitude three times larger. Thanks for the sanity checks and catch. It turns out this moves the midpoint up to 1432. Lemme fix the other numbers as well.
Update: Actually, it did nothing to the midpoint, which makes sense in retrospect (maybe?) but does change the “fraction of time” thing, as well as some of the Fermi estimates in the middle.
15% of experience has actually been experienced by living people, and 28% since Kane Tanaka’s birth. I’ve updated this here and on my blog.