it cannot occur as long as GPUs exist. we’re getting hard foom within 8 years, rain or shine, as far as I can tell; most likely within 4, if we do nothing to stabilize then it’s within 2, if we keep pushing hard then it’ll be this year.
let’s not do it this year. the people most able to push towards hard foom won’t need to rush as much if folks slow down. We’ve got some cool payouts from ai, let’s chill out slightly for a bit. just a little—there’s lots of fun capabilities stuff to do that doesn’t push towards explosive criticality, and most of the coolest capability stuff (in my view) makes things easier, not harder, to check for correctness.
it cannot occur as long as GPUs exist. we’re getting hard foom within 8 years, rain or shine, as far as I can tell; most likely within 4, if we do nothing to stabilize then it’s within 2, if we keep pushing hard then it’ll be this year.
let’s not do it this year. the people most able to push towards hard foom won’t need to rush as much if folks slow down. We’ve got some cool payouts from ai, let’s chill out slightly for a bit. just a little—there’s lots of fun capabilities stuff to do that doesn’t push towards explosive criticality, and most of the coolest capability stuff (in my view) makes things easier, not harder, to check for correctness.