I haven’t explicitly modeled out odds of war with China in the coming years, in any particular timeframe. Some rationalist-adjacent spheres on Twitter are talking about it, though. In terms of certainty, it definitely isn’t in the “China has shut down transportation out of Wuhan” levels of alarm; but it might be “mysterious disease in Wuhan, WHO claims not airborne” levels of alarm.
I’d expect our government to be approximately as competent in preparing for and succeeding at this task as they were at preparing for and eliminating COVID. (A look at our government’s actions[albeit from a China-sympathetic American] suggests general incoherence.)
If someone with greater domain expertise than me has looked at this, I’d be interested in an in-depth dive.
I haven’t explicitly modeled out odds of war with China in the coming years, in any particular timeframe. Some rationalist-adjacent spheres on Twitter are talking about it, though. In terms of certainty, it definitely isn’t in the “China has shut down transportation out of Wuhan” levels of alarm; but it might be “mysterious disease in Wuhan, WHO claims not airborne” levels of alarm.
I’d expect our government to be approximately as competent in preparing for and succeeding at this task as they were at preparing for and eliminating COVID. (A look at our government’s actions[albeit from a China-sympathetic American] suggests general incoherence.)
If someone with greater domain expertise than me has looked at this, I’d be interested in an in-depth dive.
Can you give some examples of who in the “rationalist-adjacent spheres” are discussing it?