Regarding problems related pseudoscientific quacks and cranks as a kind of example given, at this point it seems obvious that it needs to be taken for granted that there will be causal factors that, absent effective interventions, will induce large sections of society to embrace pseudo-scientific conspiracy theories. In other words, we should assume that if there is another pandemic in a decade or two, there will be more conspiracy theories.
At that point in time, people will beware science again because they’ll recall the conspiracies they believed in from the pandemic of 2019-2022 and how their misgivings about the science back then were never resolved either. As there is remaining skepticism of human-caused climate change now, in the world a couple decades from now after QAnon, don’t be shocked if there are conspiracy theories about how catastrophic natural disasters are caused by weather control carried out by the same governments who tried convincing everyone decades ago that climate change was real.
At present, we live in a world where the state of conspiracy theories in society has evolved to a point that it’s insufficient to think about them in terms of how they were thought about even a decade ago. Conspiracy theories like how the moon landing was faked or even how 9/11 was a false flag attack don’t seem to have the weight and staying power of conspiracy theories today. A decade from now, I expect COVID-19 conspiracy theories won’t be the butt of jokes the same way those other conspiracy theories. Those other conspiracy theories didn’t cause thousands of people to have their lives so needlessly shortened. I’m aware in the last few years there has been an increased investment in academia to research the nature of conspiracy theories as a way to combat them.
It also doesn’t help that we live in a time when some of the worst modern conspiracies or otherwise clandestine activities by governments are being confirmed. Lies early on in the pandemic on the scientific consensus about the effectiveness of masks to the common denial of any evidence the origin of COVID-19 could have been a lab outbreak are examples regarding only that specific case. From declassified documents in recent years proving CIA conspiracies from decades ago to stories breaking every couple years about the lengths governments have gone to cover up their illegal and clandestine activities, it’s becoming harder in general to blame anyone for believing conspiracy theories.
Given such a low rate of crankery among scientists but how that alone has proven sufficient to give a veneer of scientific credibility to fuel the most extreme COVID-19 conspiracy theories, it seems like the main chokepoint won’t be to neutralize the spread of the message at the original source that is that small percentage of cranks among experts. (By neutralize I don’t mean anything like stopping their capacity to speak freely but counter them with other free speech in the form of a strategy composed of communication tactics of the most convincing known-down arguments as soon as any given crank is on the brink of becoming popular.) It’s also self-evident that it’s insufficient to undo the spread of a conspiracy theory once it’s hit critical mass.
Based on the few articles I’ve read on the research that’s been done on this subject in the last few years, the chokepoint in the conspiracy theory pipeline to focus on to have the greatest impact may be to neutralize their viral spread as they first begin growing in popularity on social media. Again, with the cranks at the beginning of that pipeline, to stop the spread of so many conspiracy theories in the first place at their points of origin may prove too difficult. The best best may not to eliminate them in the first place but to minimize how much they spread once it becomes apparent.
This entails anticipating different kinds of conspiracy theories before they happen, perhaps years in advance. In other words, for the most damaging kinds of conspiracy theories one can most easily imagine taking root among the populace in the years to come, the time to begin mitigating the impact they will have is now.
Regarding the potential of prediction markets to combat this kind of problem, we could suggest that the prediction markets that are already related to the rationality community in some way begin facilitating predictions of future (new developments in) conspiracy theories starting now.
Regarding problems related pseudoscientific quacks and cranks as a kind of example given, at this point it seems obvious that it needs to be taken for granted that there will be causal factors that, absent effective interventions, will induce large sections of society to embrace pseudo-scientific conspiracy theories. In other words, we should assume that if there is another pandemic in a decade or two, there will be more conspiracy theories.
At that point in time, people will beware science again because they’ll recall the conspiracies they believed in from the pandemic of 2019-2022 and how their misgivings about the science back then were never resolved either. As there is remaining skepticism of human-caused climate change now, in the world a couple decades from now after QAnon, don’t be shocked if there are conspiracy theories about how catastrophic natural disasters are caused by weather control carried out by the same governments who tried convincing everyone decades ago that climate change was real.
At present, we live in a world where the state of conspiracy theories in society has evolved to a point that it’s insufficient to think about them in terms of how they were thought about even a decade ago. Conspiracy theories like how the moon landing was faked or even how 9/11 was a false flag attack don’t seem to have the weight and staying power of conspiracy theories today. A decade from now, I expect COVID-19 conspiracy theories won’t be the butt of jokes the same way those other conspiracy theories. Those other conspiracy theories didn’t cause thousands of people to have their lives so needlessly shortened. I’m aware in the last few years there has been an increased investment in academia to research the nature of conspiracy theories as a way to combat them.
It also doesn’t help that we live in a time when some of the worst modern conspiracies or otherwise clandestine activities by governments are being confirmed. Lies early on in the pandemic on the scientific consensus about the effectiveness of masks to the common denial of any evidence the origin of COVID-19 could have been a lab outbreak are examples regarding only that specific case. From declassified documents in recent years proving CIA conspiracies from decades ago to stories breaking every couple years about the lengths governments have gone to cover up their illegal and clandestine activities, it’s becoming harder in general to blame anyone for believing conspiracy theories.
Given such a low rate of crankery among scientists but how that alone has proven sufficient to give a veneer of scientific credibility to fuel the most extreme COVID-19 conspiracy theories, it seems like the main chokepoint won’t be to neutralize the spread of the message at the original source that is that small percentage of cranks among experts. (By neutralize I don’t mean anything like stopping their capacity to speak freely but counter them with other free speech in the form of a strategy composed of communication tactics of the most convincing known-down arguments as soon as any given crank is on the brink of becoming popular.) It’s also self-evident that it’s insufficient to undo the spread of a conspiracy theory once it’s hit critical mass.
Based on the few articles I’ve read on the research that’s been done on this subject in the last few years, the chokepoint in the conspiracy theory pipeline to focus on to have the greatest impact may be to neutralize their viral spread as they first begin growing in popularity on social media. Again, with the cranks at the beginning of that pipeline, to stop the spread of so many conspiracy theories in the first place at their points of origin may prove too difficult. The best best may not to eliminate them in the first place but to minimize how much they spread once it becomes apparent.
This entails anticipating different kinds of conspiracy theories before they happen, perhaps years in advance. In other words, for the most damaging kinds of conspiracy theories one can most easily imagine taking root among the populace in the years to come, the time to begin mitigating the impact they will have is now.
Regarding the potential of prediction markets to combat this kind of problem, we could suggest that the prediction markets that are already related to the rationality community in some way begin facilitating predictions of future (new developments in) conspiracy theories starting now.