So, the main takeaway is that we need some notion of fungibility/additivity of research progress (for both alignment and capabilities) in order for the “ratio” model to make sense.
Some places fungibility/additivity could come from:
research reducing time-until-threshold-is-reached additively and approximately-independently of other research
probabilistic independence in general
a set of rate-limiting constraints on capabilities/alignment strategies, such that each one must be solved independent of the others (i.e. solving each one does not help solve the others very much)
Fungibility is necessary, but not sufficient for the “if your work has a better ratio than average research, publish”. You also need your uncertainty to be in the right place.
If you were certain of R, and uncertain what ACfuture research might have, you get a different rule, publish if ac>R.
So, the main takeaway is that we need some notion of fungibility/additivity of research progress (for both alignment and capabilities) in order for the “ratio” model to make sense.
Some places fungibility/additivity could come from:
research reducing time-until-threshold-is-reached additively and approximately-independently of other research
probabilistic independence in general
a set of rate-limiting constraints on capabilities/alignment strategies, such that each one must be solved independent of the others (i.e. solving each one does not help solve the others very much)
???
Fungibility is necessary, but not sufficient for the “if your work has a better ratio than average research, publish”. You also need your uncertainty to be in the right place.
If you were certain of R, and uncertain what ACfuture research might have, you get a different rule, publish if ac>R.