Not really. You can point out that this is your reasoning but whenever you talk about short timelines you can bet that most people will think you’re crazy. To be fair, even most people in the alignment community are more confident that 2040 will exist than not, so this is even a controversial statement within AI safety.
Not really. You can point out that this is your reasoning but whenever you talk about short timelines you can bet that most people will think you’re crazy. To be fair, even most people in the alignment community are more confident that 2040 will exist than not, so this is even a controversial statement within AI safety.
Huh, I misremembered Cotra’s update, and wrt that Metaculus question that got retitled due to the AI effect, I can see most people thinking it resolves long before history ends.