Well that really depends what the decision is and what the circumstantial factors are. As I said in my last comment, decisions are made by a combination of emotion and reason. Emotions tell you where you want to go, and reason tells you how to get there. Whether or not a decision is reasonable depends on (1) was it an effective (and efficient, though that’s somewhat less important) way of achieving your goal? Did it actually produce the outcome desired by your emotions? And (2) was it consistint with reality and the facts? Was the decision based on accurate information?
Taking the example you gave, of a family member being hurt by someone else in an accident, your emotions in reaction to this event are likely to be very charged. You just lost someone that was important to you, and you’re bound to feel hurt. It’s also very common to feel angry and to want revenge on (or justice for) the person that was responsible. It’s not clear to me why the human default is to assign guilt without evaluting the situation first to see whether or not the person actually is guilty, but that does seem to be the common response. In this case, it would be up to a jury to decide whether this constituted manslaughter. It’s most probable that the jury, having no vested interests besides ensuring justice, would be able to come to the most rational conclusion.
That said, if you are being truly rational about it and if your emotions are telling you your goal is to find out who (if anyone) was responsible, then your conclusion should be no different than that of the jury’s. Of course, most people do allow their emotions to bias them, and aren’t rational (thus the need for the jury). But if you are being rational about it, and your goal truly is about discovering the guilt or innocence of the parties involved, then how you feel about the situation is what is motivating your search, and reason and evidence should be what determined your answer. If you really don’t have enough evidence, and the evidence you do have doesn’t point more in one direction than the other, then yes, the rational conclusion would be simply to admit that you don’t know.
One should be careful to inspect what exactly that emotional motivation actually is, if it’s to determine guilt or innocence, to learn the truth about the situation, and not to find someone to blame so that you can feel better about it. (Although, how it would make you feel better to condemn a potentially innocent person when it will do nothing to bring back your family member nor help anyone else is a mystery to me. Alas, human beings have a lot of nonsensical intuitions.)
That said, if you’re honest about your intentions, and what you really want is to blame someone else, and not to find the truth, and the possibility of blaming someone innocent isn’t inconsistent with other explicit or implicit pro-social goals of yours, then to point the finger without basing your conclusion on the examination of the evidence isn’t strictly irrational, since it would be consistent with your goals, to which the facts aren’t relevant. However, that sort of approach would be pretty anti-social, and I doubt anyone having that goal would be honest enough to admit it. If your stated goal is to find the truth, then the only honest thing to do is look at the evidence, follow it, and be prepared that it might go either way.
It does no good to write in the bottom line before you start if your goal is to find out the truth. You won’t arrive at the truth that way, and if your emotions tell you the truth is what you want, then that behavior would be irrational. In the words of Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Your effectiveness as a rationalist is determined by whichever algorithm actually writes the bottom line of your thoughts.” I strongly recommend you read Eliezer’s posts The Bottom Line as well as Rationalization, as they address the issue you seem to be struggling with.
Well that really depends what the decision is and what the circumstantial factors are. As I said in my last comment, decisions are made by a combination of emotion and reason. Emotions tell you where you want to go, and reason tells you how to get there. Whether or not a decision is reasonable depends on (1) was it an effective (and efficient, though that’s somewhat less important) way of achieving your goal? Did it actually produce the outcome desired by your emotions? And (2) was it consistint with reality and the facts? Was the decision based on accurate information?
Taking the example you gave, of a family member being hurt by someone else in an accident, your emotions in reaction to this event are likely to be very charged. You just lost someone that was important to you, and you’re bound to feel hurt. It’s also very common to feel angry and to want revenge on (or justice for) the person that was responsible. It’s not clear to me why the human default is to assign guilt without evaluting the situation first to see whether or not the person actually is guilty, but that does seem to be the common response. In this case, it would be up to a jury to decide whether this constituted manslaughter. It’s most probable that the jury, having no vested interests besides ensuring justice, would be able to come to the most rational conclusion.
That said, if you are being truly rational about it and if your emotions are telling you your goal is to find out who (if anyone) was responsible, then your conclusion should be no different than that of the jury’s. Of course, most people do allow their emotions to bias them, and aren’t rational (thus the need for the jury). But if you are being rational about it, and your goal truly is about discovering the guilt or innocence of the parties involved, then how you feel about the situation is what is motivating your search, and reason and evidence should be what determined your answer. If you really don’t have enough evidence, and the evidence you do have doesn’t point more in one direction than the other, then yes, the rational conclusion would be simply to admit that you don’t know.
One should be careful to inspect what exactly that emotional motivation actually is, if it’s to determine guilt or innocence, to learn the truth about the situation, and not to find someone to blame so that you can feel better about it. (Although, how it would make you feel better to condemn a potentially innocent person when it will do nothing to bring back your family member nor help anyone else is a mystery to me. Alas, human beings have a lot of nonsensical intuitions.)
That said, if you’re honest about your intentions, and what you really want is to blame someone else, and not to find the truth, and the possibility of blaming someone innocent isn’t inconsistent with other explicit or implicit pro-social goals of yours, then to point the finger without basing your conclusion on the examination of the evidence isn’t strictly irrational, since it would be consistent with your goals, to which the facts aren’t relevant. However, that sort of approach would be pretty anti-social, and I doubt anyone having that goal would be honest enough to admit it. If your stated goal is to find the truth, then the only honest thing to do is look at the evidence, follow it, and be prepared that it might go either way.
It does no good to write in the bottom line before you start if your goal is to find out the truth. You won’t arrive at the truth that way, and if your emotions tell you the truth is what you want, then that behavior would be irrational. In the words of Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Your effectiveness as a rationalist is determined by whichever algorithm actually writes the bottom line of your thoughts.” I strongly recommend you read Eliezer’s posts The Bottom Line as well as Rationalization, as they address the issue you seem to be struggling with.