It seems to me that the basic irrationality implicated here is the assumption that there is such a thing as rationality.
Alright, I just wanted to put that in a clever contenentalist sounding quip but didn’t quite manage. What I mean is this: It (usually) makes sense to talk about beliefs being true or false. We can even talk about tendencies as being more or less inclined to reach true beliefs (given background assumptions about the distributions of such truths). However, implicit in this post and many of the comments that follow is the idea that rationality is some kind of discipline that can be followed and applied.
Or to put the point differently I think many people here are making the implicit assumption that there is some objectively correct way to evaluate evidence (over and above the constraint of simple logical consistency). However, it’s an entirely contingent fact that the sorts of rules we use to predict events in the world around us (scientific induction) actually succeed instead of a world where counter-induction holds (the more times a simple seeming pattern has occurred in the past the less chance it will occur in the future).
Worse, even if you believe that there are some magic objective facts about what the ‘right’ epistemic responses are to evidence at best rationality is a term that can be applied to a particular description, not to a person or a person’s actions. To see why note that I can always describe the same actions by an infinite number of possible rules. For instance suppose my friend asks his computer to spit out a random claim about number theory and decides to put total faith in it’s truth despite a widely accepted supposed proof of the converse. Sounds super irrational but yet the same behavior is also equally well described as saying my friend was following the rule of believing claim X about number theory with probability 1 upon first consideration. Since claim X is in fact a theorem that rule is perfectly rational.
A side-point on the hypothetical universe where counter-induction largely holds. One issue with that world is that if one of that universe’s bizarre inhabitants (assuming such a place somehow supports life) can use induction to discover the counter-induction rules. IE “When one spots an apparent pattern the next result will be the inverse of that predicted by the pattern, I have noticed this pattern historically and its always been good so far.” Which seems slightly paradoxical.
Correct me if I read it wrong, but did you just say that induction doesn’t work? I admit I don’t know how to even begin arguing for induction, so you’ve got a great opportunity; give an actual argument, rather than just saying we live in “a world where counter-induction holds.”
Also, while any phenomenon can be described by an infinite number of math equations, the more complicated ones are less likely to be true. See also, Occam’s Razor. Obviously, this relies on probability theory, which was formulated by induction, but you did say “even if you believe that there are some magic objective facts” which I assumed to be induction, probability theory, etc.
It seems to me that the basic irrationality implicated here is the assumption that there is such a thing as rationality.
Alright, I just wanted to put that in a clever contenentalist sounding quip but didn’t quite manage. What I mean is this: It (usually) makes sense to talk about beliefs being true or false. We can even talk about tendencies as being more or less inclined to reach true beliefs (given background assumptions about the distributions of such truths). However, implicit in this post and many of the comments that follow is the idea that rationality is some kind of discipline that can be followed and applied.
Or to put the point differently I think many people here are making the implicit assumption that there is some objectively correct way to evaluate evidence (over and above the constraint of simple logical consistency). However, it’s an entirely contingent fact that the sorts of rules we use to predict events in the world around us (scientific induction) actually succeed instead of a world where counter-induction holds (the more times a simple seeming pattern has occurred in the past the less chance it will occur in the future).
Worse, even if you believe that there are some magic objective facts about what the ‘right’ epistemic responses are to evidence at best rationality is a term that can be applied to a particular description, not to a person or a person’s actions. To see why note that I can always describe the same actions by an infinite number of possible rules. For instance suppose my friend asks his computer to spit out a random claim about number theory and decides to put total faith in it’s truth despite a widely accepted supposed proof of the converse. Sounds super irrational but yet the same behavior is also equally well described as saying my friend was following the rule of believing claim X about number theory with probability 1 upon first consideration. Since claim X is in fact a theorem that rule is perfectly rational.
A side-point on the hypothetical universe where counter-induction largely holds. One issue with that world is that if one of that universe’s bizarre inhabitants (assuming such a place somehow supports life) can use induction to discover the counter-induction rules. IE “When one spots an apparent pattern the next result will be the inverse of that predicted by the pattern, I have noticed this pattern historically and its always been good so far.” Which seems slightly paradoxical.
Correct me if I read it wrong, but did you just say that induction doesn’t work? I admit I don’t know how to even begin arguing for induction, so you’ve got a great opportunity; give an actual argument, rather than just saying we live in “a world where counter-induction holds.”
Also, while any phenomenon can be described by an infinite number of math equations, the more complicated ones are less likely to be true. See also, Occam’s Razor. Obviously, this relies on probability theory, which was formulated by induction, but you did say “even if you believe that there are some magic objective facts” which I assumed to be induction, probability theory, etc.