The more complex the rules get, the harder it gets to enforce them.
If the threshold is used merely for deciding who needs to report to regulators, then it seems appropriate to use the simple rule. We should care mainly that it applies to the most powerful models at any one time, not that it applies to a fixed capability level.
For a threshold that’s designed to enforce a long-term pause, it’s going to be hard to do more than slow capability progress without restrictions on GPU production.
The more complex the rules get, the harder it gets to enforce them.
If the threshold is used merely for deciding who needs to report to regulators, then it seems appropriate to use the simple rule. We should care mainly that it applies to the most powerful models at any one time, not that it applies to a fixed capability level.
For a threshold that’s designed to enforce a long-term pause, it’s going to be hard to do more than slow capability progress without restrictions on GPU production.