As I perceive it, the structure of your argument is:
How do utilitarians choose between options such as cookies and reduction of existential risk?
An unreadably dense block of assumptions, mathematization of assumptions, mathematical reasoning, and interpretation of mathematical conclusions
A reasonably clear conclusion—you feel that reduction of existential risk should be a high priority for many utilitarians.
First, there is no claim at the beginning of your article of what is novel or interesting about your analysis—why should the reader continue?
Second, in order for your argument to convince me (or even provoke substantive counterarguments), I need the middle block to be more readable. I’m not a particularly math-phobic reader, but each of your assumptions should have an informal reason for why you feel it is reasonable to make. Each of your mathematization steps (from english text to symbols) needs to be separate from the assumptions and each other. The mathematical operations don’t need to be expanded (indeed, they should be as terse as possible without compromising verifiability), but the interpretation steps (from symbols back to english text) also need to be clear and separate from each other.
Thank you for the detailed criticism, I appreciate it. I’ve tried to improve some of the elements, though I don’t see obvious improvements to most of the mathematical treatment and explanation; feel free to point out specific things. The values in the examples are somewhat arbitrary, meant to cover a wide spectrum of possibilities, and are placeholders for your own assumptions. As long as I’ve made the underlying variables sufficiently general and their explanations sufficiently clear, my hope is for this to be straightforward. The final result is the percent reduction in existential disaster that would have to be expected in order to justify sacrificing a recreation in order to work on existential risk reduction, which is noted way up in the 4th paragraph. Please let me know if there is something I can do beyond this interpretation.
As I perceive it, the structure of your argument is:
How do utilitarians choose between options such as cookies and reduction of existential risk?
An unreadably dense block of assumptions, mathematization of assumptions, mathematical reasoning, and interpretation of mathematical conclusions
A reasonably clear conclusion—you feel that reduction of existential risk should be a high priority for many utilitarians.
First, there is no claim at the beginning of your article of what is novel or interesting about your analysis—why should the reader continue?
Second, in order for your argument to convince me (or even provoke substantive counterarguments), I need the middle block to be more readable. I’m not a particularly math-phobic reader, but each of your assumptions should have an informal reason for why you feel it is reasonable to make. Each of your mathematization steps (from english text to symbols) needs to be separate from the assumptions and each other. The mathematical operations don’t need to be expanded (indeed, they should be as terse as possible without compromising verifiability), but the interpretation steps (from symbols back to english text) also need to be clear and separate from each other.
Thank you for the detailed criticism, I appreciate it. I’ve tried to improve some of the elements, though I don’t see obvious improvements to most of the mathematical treatment and explanation; feel free to point out specific things. The values in the examples are somewhat arbitrary, meant to cover a wide spectrum of possibilities, and are placeholders for your own assumptions. As long as I’ve made the underlying variables sufficiently general and their explanations sufficiently clear, my hope is for this to be straightforward. The final result is the percent reduction in existential disaster that would have to be expected in order to justify sacrificing a recreation in order to work on existential risk reduction, which is noted way up in the 4th paragraph. Please let me know if there is something I can do beyond this interpretation.