I wish there is a simple and convincing argument why thinking about probabilities this way doesn’t work
It doesn’t? If I flip a fair coin, I can think of the outcomes as “my subjective experience goes down the branch where heads comes up” and “my subjective experience goes down the branch where tails comes up”, and the principle works.
It doesn’t? If I flip a fair coin, I can think of the outcomes as “my subjective experience goes down the branch where heads comes up” and “my subjective experience goes down the branch where tails comes up”, and the principle works.