Big confounding variable is that not all assassination attempts are the same. More costly attempts being more successful will bias it one way. Better-organized terrorist groups might evade attempts more often, biasing it the other way. And of course terrorist groups might change names and structures but still have the same people and funds doing the same attacks. Oh, and being unsuccessful at assassination might be correlated with taking other measures to stop the group.
So although this is evidence one way (and the other study in the article is evidence the other way), it’s quite weak, and doesn’t overcome my prior based on what I’d do if I were a terrorist and my leader were assassinated.
Big confounding variable is that not all assassination attempts are the same. More costly attempts being more successful will bias it one way. Better-organized terrorist groups might evade attempts more often, biasing it the other way. And of course terrorist groups might change names and structures but still have the same people and funds doing the same attacks. Oh, and being unsuccessful at assassination might be correlated with taking other measures to stop the group.
So although this is evidence one way (and the other study in the article is evidence the other way), it’s quite weak, and doesn’t overcome my prior based on what I’d do if I were a terrorist and my leader were assassinated.