I was replying to someone asking why it isn’t 2-5 years. I wasn’t making an actual timeline. In another post elsewhere on the sight, I mention that they could give memory to a system now and it would be able to write a novel.
Without doing so, we obviously can’t tell how much planning they would be capable of if we did, but current models don’t make choices, and thus can only be scary for whatever people use them for, and their capabilities are quite limited.
I do believe that there is nothing inherently stopping the capabilities researchers from switching over to more agentic approaches with memory and the ability to plan, but it would be much harder than the current plan of just throwing money at the problem (increasing compute and data.).
It will require paradigm shifts (I do have some ideas as to ones that might work) to get to particularly capable and/or worrisome levels, and those are hard to predict in advance, but they tend to take a while. Thus, I am a short term skeptic of AI capabilities and danger.
I was replying to someone asking why it isn’t 2-5 years. I wasn’t making an actual timeline. In another post elsewhere on the sight, I mention that they could give memory to a system now and it would be able to write a novel.
Without doing so, we obviously can’t tell how much planning they would be capable of if we did, but current models don’t make choices, and thus can only be scary for whatever people use them for, and their capabilities are quite limited.
I do believe that there is nothing inherently stopping the capabilities researchers from switching over to more agentic approaches with memory and the ability to plan, but it would be much harder than the current plan of just throwing money at the problem (increasing compute and data.).
It will require paradigm shifts (I do have some ideas as to ones that might work) to get to particularly capable and/or worrisome levels, and those are hard to predict in advance, but they tend to take a while. Thus, I am a short term skeptic of AI capabilities and danger.