I think this matches my modal expectations—this is most likely, in my mind. I do give substantial minority probability (say, 20%) to more extreme and/or accelerated cases within a decade, and it becomes a minority of likelihood (say, 20% the other direction) over 2 or 3 decades.
My next-most-likely case is that there is enough middle- and upper-middle class disruption in employment and human-capital value that human currencies and capital ownership structures (stocks, and to a lesser extent, titles and court/police-enforced rulings) become confused. Food and necessities become scarce because the human systems of distribution break. Riots and looting destroy civilization. Possibly taking AI with it, possibly with the exception of some big data centers whose (human, with AI efficiency) staffers have managed to secure against the unrest—perhaps in cooperation with military units.
I think this matches my modal expectations—this is most likely, in my mind. I do give substantial minority probability (say, 20%) to more extreme and/or accelerated cases within a decade, and it becomes a minority of likelihood (say, 20% the other direction) over 2 or 3 decades.
My next-most-likely case is that there is enough middle- and upper-middle class disruption in employment and human-capital value that human currencies and capital ownership structures (stocks, and to a lesser extent, titles and court/police-enforced rulings) become confused. Food and necessities become scarce because the human systems of distribution break. Riots and looting destroy civilization. Possibly taking AI with it, possibly with the exception of some big data centers whose (human, with AI efficiency) staffers have managed to secure against the unrest—perhaps in cooperation with military units.