If we get to the point where prediction markets actually direct policy, then yes you need them to be very deep—which in at least some cases is expected to happen naturally or can be subsidized but you also want to make the decision based off a deeper analysis than just the resulting percentages—depth of market, analysis of unusual large trades, blocking bad actors etc.
This pacifies my apprehension in (3) somewhat, although I fear that politicians are (probably intentionally) stupid when it comes to interpreting data for the sake of pushing policies
If we get to the point where prediction markets actually direct policy, then yes you need them to be very deep—which in at least some cases is expected to happen naturally or can be subsidized but you also want to make the decision based off a deeper analysis than just the resulting percentages—depth of market, analysis of unusual large trades, blocking bad actors etc.
This pacifies my apprehension in (3) somewhat, although I fear that politicians are (probably intentionally) stupid when it comes to interpreting data for the sake of pushing policies