What personal factors, if any, cause some people to tend towards one direction or another in some of these key prognostications?
For example, do economists tend more towards multiagent scenarios while computer scientists or ethicists tend more towards singleton prognostications?
Do neuroscientists tend more towards thinking that WBE will come first and AI folks more towards AGI, or the opposite?
Do professional technologists tend to have earlier timelines and others later timelines, or vice versa?
Do tendencies towards the political left or right influence such prognostications? Gender? Age? Education? Social status?
None of these affect the truth of the statements, of course, but if we found some such tendencies we might correct for them appropriately.
What personal factors, if any, cause some people to tend towards one direction or another in some of these key prognostications?
For example, do economists tend more towards multiagent scenarios while computer scientists or ethicists tend more towards singleton prognostications?
Do neuroscientists tend more towards thinking that WBE will come first and AI folks more towards AGI, or the opposite?
Do professional technologists tend to have earlier timelines and others later timelines, or vice versa?
Do tendencies towards the political left or right influence such prognostications? Gender? Age? Education? Social status?
None of these affect the truth of the statements, of course, but if we found some such tendencies we might correct for them appropriately.