“How Likely is Cryonics to Work” employed a mistaken independence assumption
It didn’t:
All my probability guesses are conditional on everything above them not happening. For example, society collapsing and my cryonics organization going out of business are very much not independent. So the probability assigned to the latter is the chance that society won’t collapse, but my organization goes out of business anyway.
It didn’t:
There was some discussion of this on the post.