Assuming that TDT doesn’t apply, the fact that we would be in a prisoner’s dilemma is irrelevant. The only rational option for humanity would be to defect by maximising its local utility—whether humans defect or cooperate in the dilemma has no effect on what the aliens choose to do.
So really the problem is only interesting from a timeless decision theory perspective (I feel that you might have made this more explicit in your post).
According to my sketchy understanding of TDT, if in a prisoner’s dilemma both parties can see the other’s source code, or otherwise predict the other’s behaviours with extreme accuracy then it is rational for them to co-operate because it is physically possible for each of them to be almost certain that the other will co-operate, and they would be able to tell if the other were to suddenly change his mind.
I don’t see how this generalises to the situation that you have described. If anyone thinks that TDT is in fact relevant to this problem, I would be interested in hearing their (lucid) explanation why this is so.
Assuming that TDT doesn’t apply, the fact that we would be in a prisoner’s dilemma is irrelevant. The only rational option for humanity would be to defect by maximising its local utility—whether humans defect or cooperate in the dilemma has no effect on what the aliens choose to do.
So really the problem is only interesting from a timeless decision theory perspective (I feel that you might have made this more explicit in your post).
According to my sketchy understanding of TDT, if in a prisoner’s dilemma both parties can see the other’s source code, or otherwise predict the other’s behaviours with extreme accuracy then it is rational for them to co-operate because it is physically possible for each of them to be almost certain that the other will co-operate, and they would be able to tell if the other were to suddenly change his mind.
I don’t see how this generalises to the situation that you have described. If anyone thinks that TDT is in fact relevant to this problem, I would be interested in hearing their (lucid) explanation why this is so.