Are you referring to OP or me? I don’t think my estimate of the difference between candidates is ridiculous. It’s pretty clear the president can have a massive impact on the world. So large that, even when multiplied by a 1 in 10 million probability, it’s still worth your time to vote.
Using dollar amounts might be a bit naive. Instead look at utility directly, perhaps some estimate like QALYs. I think something like health care reform alone has the potential to be worth tens of millions of QALYs. A major war or economic depression can easily cost similar amounts.
And again this is just the scenario where you are the tiebreaking vote. I think there is something to be said for the value of voting that goes beyond just the likelihood of being a tiebreaker. For instance, consider all the people that think similar to how you do. If you decide to not vote, they will also decide to not vote. So your decision to vote can still change the election, in a sort of acausal way.
Are you referring to OP or me? I don’t think my estimate of the difference between candidates is ridiculous. It’s pretty clear the president can have a massive impact on the world. So large that, even when multiplied by a 1 in 10 million probability, it’s still worth your time to vote.
Using dollar amounts might be a bit naive. Instead look at utility directly, perhaps some estimate like QALYs. I think something like health care reform alone has the potential to be worth tens of millions of QALYs. A major war or economic depression can easily cost similar amounts.
And again this is just the scenario where you are the tiebreaking vote. I think there is something to be said for the value of voting that goes beyond just the likelihood of being a tiebreaker. For instance, consider all the people that think similar to how you do. If you decide to not vote, they will also decide to not vote. So your decision to vote can still change the election, in a sort of acausal way.