I would put Pakistan in the “potential target for destruction” category before North Korea. I’m more scared of Islamists with nukes than North Korea with nukes. North Korea is essentially a country run by the Mafia; they’re not going to nuke anything if there’s no money in it and their power and wealth are not threatened. Islamists believe that if they get blown up by a nuclear weapon, they go to Paradise. They might very well prefer mutual annihilation to mutual coexistence.
What odds would you give on a nuclear weapon being detonated in Israel in the next fifty years?
I would put Pakistan in the “potential target for destruction” category before North Korea. I’m more scared of Islamists with nukes than North Korea with nukes. North Korea is essentially a country run by the Mafia; they’re not going to nuke anything if there’s no money in it and their power and wealth are not threatened. Islamists believe that if they get blown up by a nuclear weapon, they go to Paradise. They might very well prefer mutual annihilation to mutual coexistence.
What odds would you give on a nuclear weapon being detonated in Israel in the next fifty years?
I only give odds if I think the person I’m betting with knows less than me (or bets irrationally).