Sometime in the 2030s, AI will become more of a substitute for human labor, causing an important decline in employment.
Unemployment will be handled at least as well as the COVID-induced unemployment was handled (sigh). I can hope that AI will enable better governance than that of 2020, but I don’t want to bet on when AI will improve governance.
It’s worse than that, as a whole lot of the unemployment generated by AI is likely to be permanent, and while there are IMO reasonable arguments against AIs taking every job, I don’t see a good argument at this time arguing for why this doesn’t lead to most human beings being permanently unemployed, other than Roger Dearnley’s jobs that focus on people doing surveys to make AI aligned with human values, and I don’t see this job class existing for anything more than several months to years.
It’s worse than that, as a whole lot of the unemployment generated by AI is likely to be permanent, and while there are IMO reasonable arguments against AIs taking every job, I don’t see a good argument at this time arguing for why this doesn’t lead to most human beings being permanently unemployed, other than Roger Dearnley’s jobs that focus on people doing surveys to make AI aligned with human values, and I don’t see this job class existing for anything more than several months to years.