Bredford’s new data for Germany are quite interesting. An Rt of 3.2 with widespread mask mandates, compulsory testing for many public situations and something like a partial lockdown for unvaccinated persons (even though the vaccination status may not be that important for the spread of Omicron, locking down any 25%+ of the population should have a meaningful effect) leads me to the following predictions:
1. To stop the spread of Omicron (if that is what one really wants given the costs associated with it) a more or less full lockdown of all nonessential social activities would be necessary (whether that would be sufficient is a different question). − 75%
2. Since the German healthcare system (and those of many other European states) is near the limit of its capacity (primarily because of staffing shortages for intensive care beds), there will be a lockdown in Germany starting before January 15. − 55% (even if 1. were true, Omicron could be significantly less virulent).
3. Given the seasonality of the virus and the US being about 1 month behind Central Europe when it comes to the onset of autumn, the Rt in the US will increase to 4.5 or higher (more in the direction of the Rt in the UK). − 75% (could be lower if the control system kicks in fast).
Bredford’s new data for Germany are quite interesting. An Rt of 3.2 with widespread mask mandates, compulsory testing for many public situations and something like a partial lockdown for unvaccinated persons (even though the vaccination status may not be that important for the spread of Omicron, locking down any 25%+ of the population should have a meaningful effect) leads me to the following predictions:
1. To stop the spread of Omicron (if that is what one really wants given the costs associated with it) a more or less full lockdown of all nonessential social activities would be necessary (whether that would be sufficient is a different question). − 75%
2. Since the German healthcare system (and those of many other European states) is near the limit of its capacity (primarily because of staffing shortages for intensive care beds), there will be a lockdown in Germany starting before January 15. − 55% (even if 1. were true, Omicron could be significantly less virulent).
3. Given the seasonality of the virus and the US being about 1 month behind Central Europe when it comes to the onset of autumn, the Rt in the US will increase to 4.5 or higher (more in the direction of the Rt in the UK). − 75% (could be lower if the control system kicks in fast).