In what world is giving the second dose to the same person, raising them from 87% to 96% protected, a higher priority than vaccinating a second person?
I’m not sure I agree with this point. There’s no hard evidence that the second dose is not necessary: nobody was only vaccinated once in the trials (as far as I’m aware). Of course, we do have a prior for the immunity continuing, but we also have examples of other vaccines that require booster shots (HPV, meningitis, hep A/B); so I’d say that we should absolutely explore the one-dose option, but in the meantime, continue vaccinating people twice.
I don’t think this would affect the overall outcome either, since—as you said—the overall distribution of the vaccine works exponentially. If we start a one-dose trial now, I’m sure we’d have results soon enough that it would still be massively useful to switch gears and start doing one-dose vaccinations.
Is there a further argument for believing one-dose is sufficient? I may have missed it.
I’m not sure I agree with this point. There’s no hard evidence that the second dose is not necessary: nobody was only vaccinated once in the trials (as far as I’m aware). Of course, we do have a prior for the immunity continuing, but we also have examples of other vaccines that require booster shots (HPV, meningitis, hep A/B); so I’d say that we should absolutely explore the one-dose option, but in the meantime, continue vaccinating people twice.
I don’t think this would affect the overall outcome either, since—as you said—the overall distribution of the vaccine works exponentially. If we start a one-dose trial now, I’m sure we’d have results soon enough that it would still be massively useful to switch gears and start doing one-dose vaccinations.
Is there a further argument for believing one-dose is sufficient? I may have missed it.