While I agree that people are in general overconfident, including LessWrongers, I don’t particularly think this is because Bayesianism is philosophically incorrect, but rather due to both practical limits on computation combined with sometimes not realizing how data-poor their efforts truly are.
(There are philosophical problems with Bayesianism, but not ones that predict very well the current issues of overconfidence in real human reasoning, so I don’t see why Bayesianism is so central here. Separately, while I’m not sure there can ever be a complete theory of epistemology, I do think that Bayesianism is actually quite general, and a lot of the principles of Bayesianism is probably implemented in human brains, allowing for practicality concerns like cost of compute.)
While I agree that people are in general overconfident, including LessWrongers, I don’t particularly think this is because Bayesianism is philosophically incorrect, but rather due to both practical limits on computation combined with sometimes not realizing how data-poor their efforts truly are.
(There are philosophical problems with Bayesianism, but not ones that predict very well the current issues of overconfidence in real human reasoning, so I don’t see why Bayesianism is so central here. Separately, while I’m not sure there can ever be a complete theory of epistemology, I do think that Bayesianism is actually quite general, and a lot of the principles of Bayesianism is probably implemented in human brains, allowing for practicality concerns like cost of compute.)