Sammy Martin comments on What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?

[Sammy Martin]

In other words, a CFR of 1-6%, with the lowest value overlapping with estimates being put out by governments right now.

EDIT: I just read Scotty’s new post on the subject and he’s confused by that 10-20% figure as well

So the graph above implies that every demographic has approximately equal hospitalization rates, which other sources suggest are 15% to 20%.

This is a weird pattern – why are so many young people getting hospitalized if almost none of them die? Either the medical system is serving these people really well (ie they would die if they didn’t go the hospital, but everyone does make it to the hospital, and the hospital saves everyone who goes there), they are being hospitalized unnecessarily (ie they would live even if they didn’t go the hospital, but they do anyway), or it’s statistical shenanigans (eg most statistics are collected at the hospital, so it looks like everybody goes to the hospital).

Are these an overestimate? Maybe most cases never come to the government’s attention? There’s some evidence for this.

[Steven Byrnes]

The young people who get hospitalized and recover are mostly not needing ICU or mechanical ventilation (~2% of total young adult cases do, i.e. 10% of the hospitalized young adults I guess), but I can’t find data on what interventions they are getting and whether they’re lifesaving.